Just 60 days in the past when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
