A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
